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|本期目录/Table of Contents|

食管癌高危人群列线图预测模型的建立与应用研究(PDF)

《现代预防医学》[ISSN:1003-8507/CN:51-1365/R]

期数:
2022年14期
页码:
2527-2534
栏目:
流行病与统计方法
出版日期:
2022-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Establishment and application of nomogram prediction model in high risk population of esophageal cancer
作者:
刘兵; 孙中明; 文进博; 缪丹丹; 张芹; 胡伟; 唐勇; 潘恩春
淮安市疾病预防控制中心，江苏 淮安 223001
Author(s):
LIU Bing;  SUN Zhong-ming;  WEN Jin-bo;  MIAO Dan-dan;  ZHANG Qin;  HU Wei;  TANG Yong;  PAN En-chun
Huai’an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai’an, Jiangsu 223001, China
关键词:
食管癌; 早诊早治; 回归模型; 检出率; 列线图
Keywords:
Esophageal cancer;  Early diagnosis and treatment;  Regression model;  Detection rate;  Nomogram
分类号:
R735.1
DOI:
10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202112274
文献标识码:
A
摘要:
目的 分析重度异型增生及以上病变（severe dysplasia and above, SDA）的影响因素，建立列线图预测模型，为进一步开展食管癌筛查和防治工作提供依据。方法 选取2009—2017年度淮河癌症早诊早治项目中3个项目点进行上消化道内镜检查（碘染色）并经病理确诊的人群，采用logistic回归分析找出SDA发病的影响因素，根据影响因素建立列线图预测模型。结果 通过单因素和多因素logistic回归分析，总人群风险预测模型显示年龄、人均年收入、直系亲属人数、女性、饮用自来水和经常食用腌晒食品共6个因素与SDA发病密切相关。≤60岁人群中，年龄、人均年收入、饮用自来水共3个因素与SDA发病密切相关。＞60岁人群中，年龄、直系亲属人数、BMI、饮用自来水共4个因素与SDA发病密切相关。根据以上影响因素构建列线图预测模型，三种预测模型的AUC分别为0.712、0.714、0.626，均具有较高的预测价值（P＜0.05）。结论 SDA列线图预测模型具有较好的准确度、灵敏度及特异度，可以提高食管癌检出率，从而进一步提高癌症早诊早治工作的社会经济效益，促进筛查工作的可持续性发展。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of severe dysplasia and above lesions (SDA) and establish the nomogram prediction model of SDA, so as to provide a basis for further screening and prevention of esophageal cancer. Methods A logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors of the incidence of esophageal cancer and to establish a risk prediction model for esophageal cancer among the patients who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (iodine staining) and were confirmed by pathology in three projects of early diagnosis and treatment of cancer in Huaihe River from 2009 to 2017. The nomogram prediction model was established according to the influencing factors. Results By single factor and multivariate logistic regression analysis, the total population risk prediction model showed that age, per capita annual income, the number of direct relatives, women, drinking tap water, and frequent consumption of salted food were closely related to the incidence of esophageal cancer. Among people under 60 years old, age, per capita annual income, and drinking tap water were closely related to the incidence of esophageal cancer. Among people over 60 years old, age, number of immediate relatives, BMI and drinking tap water were closely related to the incidence of esophageal cancer. The nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the above influencing factors. The AUC of the three nomogram prediction models were 0.712, 0.714, and 0.626, respectively, which had high predictive value(P<0.05). Conclusion The nomogram prediction model of esophageal cancer has good accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. It can improve the detection rate of esophageal cancer, further improve the social and economic benefits of early diagnosis and treatment of cancer, and promote the sustainable development of screening.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目：2017年度省第五期“333工程”科研资助立项项目（BRA2017242）；淮安市应用研究与科技攻关（社会发展）项目（HAS201607-2）
作者简介：刘兵 （1992—），男，硕士，主管医师，研究方向：慢性病防治与健康教育工作
通信作者：潘恩春，E-mail:hypec@163.com；孙中明，E-mail:10668201@ qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-07-28