我们的网站为什么显示成这样?

可能因为您的浏览器不支持样式,您可以更新您的浏览器到最新版本,以获取对此功能的支持,访问下面的网站,获取关于浏览器的信息:

|本期目录/Table of Contents|

食管癌高危人群列线图预测模型的建立与应用研究(PDF)

《现代预防医学》[ISSN:1003-8507/CN:51-1365/R]

期数:
2022年14期
页码:
2527-2534
栏目:
流行病与统计方法
出版日期:
2022-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Establishment and application of nomogram prediction model in high risk population of esophageal cancer
作者:
刘兵孙中明文进博缪丹丹张芹胡伟唐勇潘恩春
淮安市疾病预防控制中心,江苏 淮安 223001
Author(s):
LIU Bing SUN Zhong-ming WEN Jin-bo MIAO Dan-dan ZHANG Qin HU Wei TANG Yong PAN En-chun
Huai’an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai’an, Jiangsu 223001, China
关键词:
食管癌早诊早治回归模型检出率列线图
Keywords:
Esophageal cancer Early diagnosis and treatment Regression model Detection rate Nomogram
分类号:
R735.1
DOI:
10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202112274
文献标识码:
A
摘要:
目的 分析重度异型增生及以上病变(severe dysplasia and above, SDA)的影响因素,建立列线图预测模型,为进一步开展食管癌筛查和防治工作提供依据。方法 选取2009—2017年度淮河癌症早诊早治项目中3个项目点进行上消化道内镜检查(碘染色)并经病理确诊的人群,采用logistic回归分析找出SDA发病的影响因素,根据影响因素建立列线图预测模型。结果 通过单因素和多因素logistic回归分析,总人群风险预测模型显示年龄、人均年收入、直系亲属人数、女性、饮用自来水和经常食用腌晒食品共6个因素与SDA发病密切相关。≤60岁人群中,年龄、人均年收入、饮用自来水共3个因素与SDA发病密切相关。>60岁人群中,年龄、直系亲属人数、BMI、饮用自来水共4个因素与SDA发病密切相关。根据以上影响因素构建列线图预测模型,三种预测模型的AUC分别为0.712、0.714、0.626,均具有较高的预测价值(P<0.05)。结论 SDA列线图预测模型具有较好的准确度、灵敏度及特异度,可以提高食管癌检出率,从而进一步提高癌症早诊早治工作的社会经济效益,促进筛查工作的可持续性发展。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of severe dysplasia and above lesions (SDA) and establish the nomogram prediction model of SDA, so as to provide a basis for further screening and prevention of esophageal cancer. Methods A logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors of the incidence of esophageal cancer and to establish a risk prediction model for esophageal cancer among the patients who underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (iodine staining) and were confirmed by pathology in three projects of early diagnosis and treatment of cancer in Huaihe River from 2009 to 2017. The nomogram prediction model was established according to the influencing factors. Results By single factor and multivariate logistic regression analysis, the total population risk prediction model showed that age, per capita annual income, the number of direct relatives, women, drinking tap water, and frequent consumption of salted food were closely related to the incidence of esophageal cancer. Among people under 60 years old, age, per capita annual income, and drinking tap water were closely related to the incidence of esophageal cancer. Among people over 60 years old, age, number of immediate relatives, BMI and drinking tap water were closely related to the incidence of esophageal cancer. The nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the above influencing factors. The AUC of the three nomogram prediction models were 0.712, 0.714, and 0.626, respectively, which had high predictive value(P<0.05). Conclusion The nomogram prediction model of esophageal cancer has good accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. It can improve the detection rate of esophageal cancer, further improve the social and economic benefits of early diagnosis and treatment of cancer, and promote the sustainable development of screening.

参考文献/References

[ 1 ]Santucci C, Carioli G, Bertuccio P, et al. Progress in cancer mortality, incidence, and survival: a global overview[J]. European Journal of Cancer Prevention: The Official Journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP), 2020, 29(5): 367 - 381.
[ 2 ]Ferlay J, Shin HR, Bray F, et al. Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008[J]. International Journal of Cancer. Journal International du Cancer, 2010, 127(12): 2893 - 2917.
[ 3 ]Schuz J, Weiderpass E.Global cancer burden and the urgency of rigorous cancer control[J]. Meditsina Truda i Promyshlennaia Ekologiia, 2020(9): 839 - 839.
[ 4 ]孙可欣,郑荣寿,张思维,等.2015年中国分地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2019,28(1):1 - 11.Sun KX, Zheng RS, Zhang SW, et al. Report of cancer incidence and mortality in different areas of China ,2015[J]. China Cancer, 2019, 28(1): 1 - 11.
[ 5 ]Dai Z, Zheng RS, Zou XN, et al. analysis and prediction of colorectal cancer incidence trend in China[J]. Chinese journal of preventive medicine, 2012, 46(7): 598.
[ 6 ]孙中明,何源,潘恩春,等.2010年淮安市食管癌发病、死亡情况和生存率分析[J].现代预防医学,2017,44(10):1883 - 1886.Sun ZM, He Y, Pan EC, et al. Analysis on incidence, mortality and survival rate of esophageal cancer in Huai’an city in 2010[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2017, 44(10): 1883 - 1886.
[ 7 ]Yuan GJ, Li QW, Du YX, et al. Analyses on cancer incidence and mortality in Huai’an area, China, from 2009 to 2011[J]. The Chinese - German Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2012, 11(9): 497 - 503.
[ 8 ]Stoffel EM, Mangu PB, Gruber SB, et al. Hereditary colorectal cancer syndromes: American society of clinical oncology clinical practice guideline endorsement of the familial risk - colorectal cancer: European society for medical oncology clinical practice guidelines[J]. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2015, 33(2): 209.
[ 9 ]苏小茉,郭明洲.食管癌和胃癌发生机制的再认识及其防治新策略[J].胃肠病学和肝病学杂志,2021,30(2):121 - 125.Su XM, Guo MZ. Understanding the mechanism of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer development, the prevention and treatment strategies: an update[J]. Chinese Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2021, 30(2): 121 - 125.
[ 10 ]Liu M, Liu Z, Cai H, et al.A model to identify individuals at high risk for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and precancerous lesions in regions of high prevalence in China[J]. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology : the Official Clinical Practice Journal of the American Gastroenterological Association, 2017, 15(10): 1538 - 1546, e1537.
[ 11 ]Salman G, Vo K. Family history of gastric cancer and helicobacter pylori treatment[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine, 2020, 382(22): 2170.
[ 12 ]孙惠昕,张茂祥,王婉莹,等.癌症筛查与早诊早治的研究进展[J].现代肿瘤医学,2021,29(18):3287 - 3290.Sun HX, Zhang MX, Wang WY, et al. Advances in cancer screening and early diagnosis and treatment[J]. Journal of Modern Oncology, 2021, 29(18): 3287 - 3290.
[ 13 ]何英丽,张文杰,刘玉琴.2011~2015年甘肃省高台县上消化道癌早诊早治项目内镜筛查结果分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(6):447 - 451.He YL, Zhang WJ, Liu YQ. Analysis of endoscopic screening for upper digestive tract cancer in gaotai county,2011~2015[J]. China Cancer, 2017, 26(6): 447 - 451.
[ 14 ]卫生部疾病预防控制局,癌症早诊早治项目专家委员会.癌症早诊早治项目技术方案(2011版)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2011.Bureau of disease control and prevention, Ministry of Health Expert Committee of Cancer Early Diagnosis and Treatment Project. Technical scheme of cancer early diagnosis and treatment project (2011 Edition)[M]. Beijing: People’s Medical Publishing House, 2011.Bureau of disease control and Prevention. Technical scheme of cancer early diagnosis and treatment project(2011 Edition)[M]. Beijing: People’s Health Publishing House, 2011.
[ 15 ]温永秀,梁聚民,钱春花,等.甘肃省山丹县40~69岁居民上消化道癌发病筛查结果及影响因素分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(4):253 - 258.Wen YX, Liang JM, Qian CH, et al. An analysis of gastrointestinal cancer screening results and the influencing factors on 40~69 year - old resident in shandan county, Gansu province[J]. China Cancer, 2017, 26(4): 253 - 258.
[ 16 ]Tran PN, Taylor TH, Klempner SJ, et al. The impact of gender, race, socioeconomic status, and treatment on outcomes in esophageal cancer: A population - based analysis[J]. Journal of Carcinogenesis, 2017, 16(1): 3.
[ 17 ]Xu C, Zeng XT, Liu TZ, et al. Fruits and vegetables intake and risk of bladder cancer: a PRISMA - compliant systematic review and dose - response meta - analysis of prospective cohort studies[J]. Medicine, 2015, 94(17): e759.
[ 18 ]肖萍,陶德明,黄承钰,等.食管癌高发区居民膳食结构分析[J].现代预防医学,2006,33(3):393 - 394, 402.Xiao P, Tao DM, Huang CY, et al. Analysis of dietary structure of residents in areas with high incidence of esophageal cancer[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2006, 33(3): 393 - 394, 402.
[ 19 ]吴艳,赫晓磊,周叶,等.新疆哈萨克族食管癌患者膳食营养和饮食习惯调查分析[J].中国医学前沿杂志:电子版,2021,13(7):73 - 77.Wu Y, He XL, Zhou S, et al. Investigation and analysis of dietary nutrition and dietary habits of Kazakh esophageal cancer patients in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of the Frontiers of Medical Science(Electronic Version), 2021, 13(7): 73 - 77.
[ 20 ]Wen D, Shan B, Wang S, et al. A positive family history of esophageal/gastric cardia cancer with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma is associated with a younger age at onset and more likely with another synchronous esophageal/gastric cardia cancer in a Chinese high - risk area[J]. European Journal of Medical Genetics, 2010, 53(5): 250 - 255.
[ 21 ]Rokkas T, Sechopoulos P, Pistiolas DA, et al. Helicobacter pylori in fection and gastric histology in first - degree relatives of gastric cancer patients: a meta - analysis[J]. European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, 2010, 22(9): 1128 - 1133.
[ 22 ]潘恩春,孙中明,何源,等.沿淮河食管癌高发区居民家族遗传与食管癌发病风险的关系[J].现代预防医学,2016,43(14):2524 - 2526, 2530.Pan EC, Sun ZM, He Y, et al. The correlation between the risk of esophagus cancer and familial inheritance of residents in the high - incidence area along the Huaihe River[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2016, 43(14): 2524 - 2526, 2530.
[ 23 ]朱琳,高静,柏丁兮,等.中国食管癌患者营养风险发生率的Meta分析[J].现代预防医学,2020,47(24):4447 - 4451.Zhu L, Gao J, Bai DX, et al. Prevalence of nutritional risk in patients with esophageal cancer in China: A meta - analysis[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2020, 47(24): 4447 - 4451.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目:2017年度省第五期“333工程”科研资助立项项目(BRA2017242);淮安市应用研究与科技攻关(社会发展)项目(HAS201607-2)
作者简介:刘兵 (1992—),男,硕士,主管医师,研究方向:慢性病防治与健康教育工作
通信作者:潘恩春,E-mail:hypec@163.com;孙中明,E-mail:10668201@ qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-07-28